All The World’s A Stage: How Traders Navigated the Iran–Israel June ’25 Flashpoint
And the Hidden Big Fedspeak Trade That You Might Have Missed
At the AXIA trading desks.
13th-23rd June 2025.
London, England. And Limassol, Cyprus.
The flashpoint spans the first Israeli air strike on 13 June to the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement of 23-24 June. Pull up a WTI or Brent Crude chart—you’ll see the entire story.
Here are two interviews: one with a young trader in Cyprus—recognised by longtime Asymmetrist readers—and another with a well-known senior figure: The Godfather from Traders of Our Time. His expertise, earned over more than two decades, is unmistakable. The Warrior and The Student make a brief appearance because their stories are intertwined on the trading floor.
Here are the standouts:
The best opportunities came at the start and end: the surprise Israeli strike and the confirmation that the Iranian retaliation in Qatar was for show. While markets focused on this flashpoint, Fedspeak offered fantastic opportunities too. Navigating both required the ability to shift mentally between themes and execute with extreme decisiveness, all on Monday, 23 June.
This geopolitical ‘show’ has played out before. In January 2020, the U.S. killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike, triggering strong risk-off flows and cross-market correlations. Traders feared a wider Middle East conflict and Oil supply disruptions, with global economic effects. That period was recorded by The Warrior trading it, and explored in Traders of Our Time. Consider this ‘Trump–Iran 1.0’.
This time, the market response was relatively contained outside the energy sector, unlike the previous Iran flashpoint in 2020. One curious case: the Bund didn’t bid on 13 June. The German 10-year, typically a safe-haven favourite, traded lower all day. It’s been stuck in a placid range for the entire flashpoint. That inaction was as revealing as it was surprising. If it can’t bid on this, what does that suggest about the downside?
Like Trump–Iran 1.0, Iranian retaliation was symbolic: a few missiles aimed at a U.S. base, no casualties. This time, Trump thanked Iran for the heads-up ahead of the Qatar base strike. The explosions and missiles were choreographed. But it created a way out. At a certain point, those visuals meant ‘risk-on’: equities bid, Oil and Gold offered.
Navigating all of it required serious Sitzfleisch—the discipline to sit still, stay alert, and wait. Knowing when not to trade—through indecisive headlines and frustrating noise—was just as important. The real challenge: Can you sit it all out and strike on the one headline that breaks the rest? That’s thinking upstream. Then comes the unexpected move: buying equities and selling energy on the words ‘six missiles fired’.
In ‘Stamina’, The Warrior traded a Japanese election in September 2024, following the order flow before the headline hit. This was a tactical imperative. Japanese speakers will hear the election results before they’re translated, so they hit first. The Warrior rode on their coattails. That is how it goes for the two traders you’ll read about, and the necessity of this skill during this June flashpoint. Others have better speed or information, but you’re nimble, dynamic, with a wide repertoire to understand the market feedback. You’ll read about how the flow hits the markets before the headline, which can help you defensively. Consider our use of ‘adverse selection’ in Traders of Our Time:
“Roughly, then, it is using the fast, aggressive market efficiency to your advantage … for our purposes we can accept that it is highly but not perfectly efficient. You can assume the market is “nearly always right” and is trading higher or lower for a reason. This creates a truism for dynamic, outright futures traders—if you are in a winning position, there is likely a good reason for it. If you are in a losing position, there is also a good reason for it.
And so—act accordingly: size up! Size down! The greater the volatility and the stronger the momentum in the market, the faster participants are forced to make decisions in a compressed time period. This is when price information is at its most pure and easiest to observe … each of the traders in this book has empirically observed the same behaviour and taken advantage of it. The Warrior summarises adverse selection when trading news or periods of high volatility in the markets— ‘I don’t want to be the first guy to hit the news, but you always want to be the second.’ Let the market tell you what it wants to do.”
Regardless of your performance, learning from this period will improve future performance. The lack of reaction in fixed income and the logic of contrarian headline trades will become an edge one day. You’ll be faster, sharper, and more decisive; experience compounds only if you capture it. If you reflect, adapt, and change your behaviour based on this, today’s P&L—win or loss—will be dwarfed by future outperformance. Wasting this could cost you your career, or your first six or seven-figure day.
Before we continue, a reminder: people died in these events. The consequences are still unfolding. Remember what we wrote in Traders of Our Time.
That brings us to the question of morality, of seeming opportunism. But in doing so, we risk entering a hall of mirrors. You will read about the profitable trading of events that have had a great impact across the world, with terrible consequences for many, such as assassination, war and the pandemic. And this contrast of fortunes is not lost on us, as it is not lost on the traders navigating these events within the markets. Many have families; many have a great deal more to lose in their lives than just money, trading accounts or financial glory. If it can happen to them, it can happen to me. We do not cheer on the end of other people’s worlds. And yet, some events that you read about have impacted them in the ‘real world’ more directly than you would think. But they traded it all the same.
A Young Trader in Cyprus
Interview conducted Tuesday, 24 June 2025.
It’s around 2:30 a.m. in Cyprus on Friday, June 13th. A drip of WSJ and Tehran explosion headlines culminates in confirmation of an Israeli air strike in Iran. Our young trader hears the news. Not in the AXIA office, he runs to his home setup and unfortunately boots out his father-in-law, sleeping beside the desk, in a rush to hit the markets.
“I jumped in and remembered from last time: I’ve got to get long Oil [ICE’s Brent Crude Futures], Gold, and the S&P. I was onside a lot. But then, Oil crashed two points [200 ticks]. None of my newswires were up, and I was freaking out, unsure if something had been denied. I got out of some [clips], then got back in on the second leg. But it was strange. Gold and S&P weren’t moving. I made money on Oil; I was down on everything else.”
What is your view on broader trading at this time?
The main thing was not to mess up like I did during the tariff theme. I was going for it. I’d been through similar situations—Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel—so I thought: I’m going for it. Not via some proxy market, just directly hitting Brent. That’s where I made my money, apart from Monday [23 June 2025]. The main opportunity was around 22–23 June, aside from a few comments to build some P&L.
What was your thinking going into the weekend of 21-22 June?
I expected the U.S. strike over the weekend. I thought Trump would strike, then quickly talk it down to push for peace. He doesn’t want Oil to spike. Oil could trade lower if he strikes and talks it down by Sunday night. The weekend markets showed Oil gapping up significantly—seven or eight points.
I knew I’d be up all night, so I napped during the day to prepare.
What were your plans for the futures open on Sunday, June 22?
I’d been learning from another trader, working on relative value and calculations. The key was the crack spread. Gas Oil [ICE’s Low Sulphur Gasoil Futures] was performing well against Brent.
[Editor Note: The crack spread is the price difference between crude oil and refined petroleum products like Gas Oil.]
Then [The Warrior] and I talked. We weren’t sure Oil would keep going if it was already up 7–8 points. Our plan allowed for the Sunday open to be a fade, like the previous week. Nothing escalated after the U.S. strike. [‘U.S. Attacks Nuclear Sites In Iran…’ U.S. B-2 bombers hit Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.]
I spent time calculating where the spread should be. Just before the open, Gas Oil surged, meaning Brent should be up $7.5–8 too. I thought: this is wrong!
WTI [NYMEX’s Crude Oil] was higher than Brent, which was odd given the Middle East situation. [WTI tracks closer to the U.S., Brent to the Middle East.] So on the open, I sold small size in CL and Gas Oil. I went onside in CL, but Gas Oil didn’t move. I thought: this is an Oil derivative; it’s a spread. Oil is up 2 points, and Gas is pricing in $8! It’s panic, so I held the short. Soon after, it turned and traded lower.
What occurred next?
That was Sunday night into Monday morning [22–23 June]. Once you see that reversal, you know it won’t escalate. The open dropped sharply. A lot was already priced in.
Later Monday evening, Qatar closed its airspace. There were reports of an incoming strike. It felt heavily signalled, which I considered with this theme. Look at the final Iranian strike on Israel. Oil was choppy—not a straight move—but it sold off once the strike ended.
When we heard Iran was about to fire missiles, I thought: buy Oil to hold, then sell it after the strike, buy S&P, and sell Gold. A risk-on move.
Was anyone else influencing your conviction?
[The Warrior] messaged me. We discussed that one of these events would be a big fade, like the market saying, “it’s over.” He said, “I’m just going to sell it when the strike happens.” That gave me confidence.
I bought a small amount of Oil, but it wasn’t moving. I thought: something’s off; so I got out. Around the same time, explosions were reported over Qatar. Six missiles were fired. Oil dropped quickly. S&P was still falling.
That’s when I moved. I missed the Oil leg—it happened too fast. There was no initial move-up. I bought S&P near the lows, thinking it would go. It was time to hold.
How did you approach size and risk at that time?
The key was not getting out too early. This time, I held to the high. I’m tired of not pushing for bigger days. I told myself, “We’re going down with the ship if this fails.” I held. That’s where I made all the money—on the de-escalation.
What’s the main insight for your process?
Be there every minute of every day during the theme. Go for it. You’ll take some hits and bigger losses, but keep hitting size. I didn’t walk away feeling like I did after the Trump tariffs, like I’d messed up. I learned the lesson. This has been the best theme, days, and month for me—a milestone. That’s it.
The Godfather Returns
Interview conducted Wednesday, 25 June 2025. London.
How did you approach the open on Sunday, 22nd June?
I felt that trading WTI [NYMEX Crude Oil] immediately carried a 100 to 200 tick risk. I wasn’t willing to do that, so I decided to wait and trade the aftermath.
WTI gapped up as expected, around 400 ticks. S&P dropped 50 to 70 handles, then the markets reversed. WTI retraced, and S&P bounced. My attention turned to Gold [COMEX’s GC], which gapped up too, not as much, but near its highs, despite Oil dropping 100 ticks and S&P bouncing 20 to 30 handles.
[Editor Note: Gold is treated as a safe-haven product, bought in Risk-Off moves and sold in Risk-On. In this theme, GC is positively correlated to WTI and negatively correlated with equities.]
I started scaling into GC based on other markets. I wondered why Gold was still up; it hadn’t reacted yet. I held around 50 GC and scaled out as it started to offer. I knew my risk, and liquidity came into the market within five minutes. The risk wasn’t 100 ticks anymore.
I nicked just under a point on 40 lots. Things settled. I stayed until 1 a.m. to see if anything would come out of Iran. Eventually, I got some sleep, knowing I’d be back in the office early Monday.
What did you and the team discuss on Monday, 23rd?
We were discussing what might come next. I also talked with [The Student] over the weekend. Don’t forget, on Saturday, we thought the strike decision would come in two weeks, as [White House Press Secretary Karoline] Leavitt said. But we mapped out a potential scenario: the U.S. striking [Iranian Uranium Enrichment Facility] Fordow would be a risk-on event. [Equity Up, Gold and Crude Oils down.]
What was the reasoning behind that?
We weren’t certain, but kept it in mind. It was [The Student’s] idea, but we both explored it. The thinking was: if the U.S. takes out Fordow, the Iranian regime stays in power. They didn’t give it up through negotiations, so hardliners remain. Once they saw Israel attack, they were fighting a war they probably couldn’t win, especially with the U.S. involved. It keeps the regime intact.
Nobody knows the impact of Fordow: whether it sets Iran back five years or five months, only they do. It’s a calculated sacrifice for regime survival. I’ve considered how this fits with [Iran’s Supreme Leader] Khamenei’s historical playbook: survival, not martyrdom. Survival of the regime.
Were you working off any external cues?
We didn’t know it then, but later, we read that some funds had discovered the U.S. fully evacuated its Al-Udeid air base in Qatar days before. All equipment and personnel were gone. That’s why when the announcement came out that Iran was about to attack, Oil was bid and sold aggressively and quickly. Then it got slammed when people realised it might all be theatre.
What was your response during Iran’s retaliation by striking the U.S. military base [Al-Udeid] in Qatar?
Oil started to bid. Some traders I know got long aggressively, but I didn’t. I thought—have I missed out? You could have gotten long and then cut-and-reversed. But we saw Oil starting to fall, before any new information, other than Iran was about to attack the Qatar air base. I knew something didn’t feel right with that price action.
Despite Oil moving 100 ticks, I focused on the S&P, which was trading Risk-Off and still offering! While Oil was back to ‘risk-on’ and had done 100-150 ticks. I started clipping into S&P and built a triple-digit position, I hit GC and Gas Oil; the first time I traded it. I sold it because it hadn’t moved.
Headline: Iran fired six missiles. It felt meek and tit-for-tat. We were mapping out de-escalation, front-running it. This was the Trump-Iran 1.0 story from 2020. [Watch an explanation and recorded trade of The Warrior navigating the 1.0 story, further examined and integrated into Traders of Our Time.]
[Editor Note: That signifies a controlled geopolitical landing zone, providing a face-saving exit for the Iranian regime by firing at U.S. military bases with no impact, avoiding escalation. Everyone can stand down. Managed de-escalation through the theatre of retaliation or apparent ‘escalation’. This is the ‘best’ outcome.]
But in the heat of the moment, when you heard retaliation, part of you doesn't need to see the other side: What if they really go for it? What if we get a real war escalation? To show the world? That's always in the back of your mind.
It’s hard to say: ‘Yeah! This will de-escalate, this is the peak of the fear.’ Sometimes you need confirmation. So you look through your Tweetdeck, where you get the most accurate up-to-date confirmation of the attack and interceptions. And that’s where I got mine: this is Iran-Trump 1.0 again. Then I sold into WTI, even if it had moved 250 ticks lower. This time I wanted complete unwind; a capitulation of the entire bid [since two weeks ago]. I remember messaging [The Student] that I wanted to trade to monthly lows.
But then the “zero casualties” headline came?
Exactly. I added to my shorts. So did everyone else. Then, I clipped into CL and Brent, with 120 lots on in CL—and it was the absolute low of that move!
Then, it bid 120 ticks, so I had to scale out and pay up. I couldn’t believe it moved that much. I think it took a solid 50-60 loser. At the time, it made you think if there was some other news out. Have they struck another base? Have they gone for the UAE or Iraq?
So you are constantly looking and asking: Have I missed something? Right, I haven’t. Sell it again! It doesn’t matter that I lost 60-70k on a big pullback; sell it again! If everything unwinds like we think it should go. So I did sell it.
Then Trump posted.
What stood out was when he said, “Thanks for the advanced warning.” That confirmed it was theatre. Gold was still lagging. I messaged [a trader in AXIA’s Cyprus office] about how wrong GC looked, so I held the short; it needs to catch up.
We stayed in the office until about 9 pm, when we heard from Trump.
What about the ceasefire news?
It’s funny because I don’t think any of us considered the next step: a full ceasefire between Israel and Iran. We were fixated on the U.S. side. We knew it was the beginning of the end—but I didn’t think it would be two hours later!
I came home relieved. I wasn’t going to turn on my system, but I had a short 15 lots in GC, with a stop in, that I wanted to adjust before bed. At 10:50 p.m., I turned my screens on for the 11 p.m. open. Nothing suspicious. CL was slightly higher, but I kept the GC as that had better value. So I left an OCO order and walked away for some sleep. At 11:02 p.m.
At 11:04, my phone blew up, so I ran back to the screens and saw: full ceasefire... Iran and Israel... starting in six hours. I looked at my GC and was more onside, but I wasn’t positioned for that move.
I stupidly started selling Oil and buying S&P. By the time I ran from my bedroom to the office, I realised Oil had gone 200 ticks! It pulls back, thin market—20, 30, 40—in my face on 100 lots! What have I done? What have I done?
I saw Trump’s post and thought this had to be big. We expected Iran-Israel tensions and a risk to supply. But a full ceasefire? Big! I endured the trade pain. The S&P dropped 20 handles, and I was offside, but I didn’t mind as much as Oil. My Oil entry was terrible because I missed 200 ticks.
I managed and kept the positions, but then CNN…
You saw CNN deny it?
Yes, they immediately denied a ceasefire existed. But this was CNN, whose output is against Trump. So I thought this had to be false. I saw [Vice-President] J.D. Vance on TV confirming that the President had brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
But everything on Twitter denied it. So, who do I trust? I decided that Trump wouldn’t tweet this, nor would Vance proclaim this if it’s baseless. That sealed it for me. I held my position.
I wondered what others will do when they see this news. There’s no precedent for a brokered ceasefire. It was a shock. The day was about Iran and the U.S.—no one was thinking about Israel. I worked the trades, but it was messy. I got flat around 1:30 a.m.
Could I have done better? Yes. I missed the first 200 ticks in CL. I had to remind myself that you won’t get a six-figure P&L on a ceasefire headline. It is what it is.
But when I went to bed, I couldn’t stop thinking about a potential violation. I’d better be in the office by 7 a.m. So, I slept at 2 a.m. and woke at 5:30 a.m.
And that was yesterday. Done.
How do you view the two weeks?
It was brutal. The shock came from Israel’s initial strike on Friday [13 June] and Monday night’s [23 June] full reversal. Everything in between was tough—noise, false starts, misinformation. When Trump’s words become more show than substance, the markets get messy. Without conviction, you can’t put on size. Then you do put on size out of frustration from missing the previous move, then it goes bad. It was challenging to execute size over the last two weeks. It chipped away at your stamina. But this final play is what we were waiting for.
In Case You Forgot Us
Here’s a plot twist. While the whole market focused on these events, Monday, 23 June Fedspeak was actually the trade of the day. That’s what built a serious P&L floor-wide. The Iran–Israel–U.S. headlines just added to it.
Can you walk me through this?
On Monday, [Fed’s Michelle] Bowman said almost exactly what [Fed’s Christopher] Waller had said earlier.
[Editor’s Note. Waller’s key message (Reuters): ‘inflation risk from tariffs was small, and the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting in July,’ Bowman’s key message (CNBC): If inflation stays low, supports rate cut in July; tariffs only minimal impact on inflation.]
Waller is a mega dove, while Bowman is viewed as hawkish. So when she reiterated that cuts could come in July, that was significant. It was big for a hawkish member to say that.
How did you trade it?
I was aggressive on Bowman’s dovish comment on Monday [23 June] because of Waller’s comments on Friday. My product selection was good but not that good. I was onside, then it reversed. I took a scratch on Waller. I traded the Five-Year, Euro, Gold, and S&P on Friday-Waller.
I kept Bowman in mind and went aggressive in SR3 [CME’s 3-Month U.S. short-term interest rate futures]. I lifted 500 SR3, 150 Euro [6E: CME’s EURUSD futures] and around 300 ZF [CBOT’s U.S. Five-Year Note futures].
The reaction was not what it ‘should’ have been. There was a lot of noise and whippy action, but I tried to block it out. I told myself this was a hawkish member flipping dovish—too dovish. Personally, Trump wants the Fed to cut rates; he’ll bring the most dovish Fed member. In the next 12 months, you will see U.S. short-term yields drop significantly. So, I used all these points to remind myself to hold that short-end position longer.
The market isn’t accelerating yet because the Fed is divided, despite Bowman’s dovish statement. Some members align with Trump’s push for cuts, but others argue tariffs will cause inflation. Traders are doubtful. The market is sceptical. She’s just trying to keep Trump happy.
A few hours later, after all that Fed action, the Qatar headlines hit—and we were back to thinking about Iran and the U.S.
Read Much More About These Special Traders!
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125 Years of Mastery.
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Acknowledgements, Permissions & Disclaimer
Grateful acknowledgement to AXIA for granting access to many of their traders.
Image Credits
Members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve participate in the FOMC meeting, March 18–19, 2025, at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Building, Washington, D.C.
Source: Federal Reserve / Public domain
President Donald Trump meets with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the White House Situation Room, June 21, 2025. Portions of this photo have been blurred for security.
Source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok / United States Government Work / Public domain
Disclaimer: Do Not Do Stupid Financial Decisions. This Is Not A Game.