All The World’s A Stage: How Traders Navigated the Iran–Israel June ’25 Flashpoint
And the Hidden Big Fedspeak Trade That You Might Have Missed
At the AXIA trading desks.
13th-23rd June 2025.
London, England. And Limassol, Cyprus.
The following flashpoint spans the first Israeli air strike on 13 June to the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement of 23-24 June. Pull up a WTI or Brent Crude chart—you’ll see the whole story there.
What follows are two interviews. One with a young trader in Cyprus—longtime Asymmetrist readers will recognise him. The other is a senior figure many know well: The Godfather from Traders of Our Time. His depth of expertise, earned over more than two decades, is unmistakable. You’ll feel it in the interview. The Warrior and The Student make a cameo appearance because their stories, as ever, are intertwined on the trading floor.
Here are the standouts:
The best opportunities came at the start and the end: the surprise Israeli strike, and the confirmation that the Iranian retaliation in Qatar for the U.S. airstrike was for show. While markets were fixated on this flashpoint, Fedspeak offered fantastic opportunities, too. Navigating both required the ability to shift mentally between themes and execute with extreme decisiveness, all on a single day: Monday, 23 June.
This ‘show’ on the geopolitical stage—what we’ll call Trump–Iran 1.0—has played out before. In January 2020, the U.S. killed Iranian General Qassem Suleimani in an airstrike, triggering strong risk-off flows and a wave of cross-market correlations. Traders feared both a wider Middle East conflict and disruptions to the Oil supply, with knock-on effects across the global economy. That period was recorded by The Warrior trading it, and then explored further in Traders of Our Time.
What was different this time was how relatively contained the market response was outside the energy complex, especially to the previous Iran flashpoint in 2020. One curious case: the Bund didn’t bid on 13 June. The German 10-year, typically a safe-haven favourite, traded lower the whole day. It’s been stuck in a placid range for the entire flashpoint. That inaction was as telling as it was shocking. If it can’t bid on this, what does that suggest about the downside?
As with Trump–Iran 1.0, Iranian retaliation was symbolic: a few missiles aimed at a U.S. base, no casualties. This time, Trump even thanked Iran for the heads-up ahead of the Qatar base strike. The whole thing—explosions, missiles—was choreographed. But it created a way out. At a certain point, those visuals meant ‘risk-on’: equities bid, Oil and Gold offered.
Navigating all of it required serious Sitzfleisch—the discipline to sit still, stay alert, and wait. Knowing when not to trade—through stretches of indecisive headlines and frustrating noise—was just as important. The real challenge was this: Can you sit it all out and strike on the one headline that breaks the rest? That’s thinking upstream. Then comes the counterintuitive move: buying equities and selling energy on the words six missiles fired.
Like in ‘Stamina’, where The Warrior traded a Japanese Election in October 2024, following the order flow before the headline hits is a tactical imperative. As he put it, Japanese speakers will have the edge in hearing the election results before they are translated, so they hit first. So he’ll ride on their coattails. That is how it goes for the two traders you are about to read, and the necessity of this skill during this June ’25 geopolitical flashpoint. Others have better speed or information, but you are nimble, dynamic, with a wide repertoire to understand the market feedback. You will read about how the flow hits the markets well before the headline comes out, which can at least help you defensively, if nothing else. Consider how we proposed our own use of ‘adverse selection’ in Traders of Our Time:
“Roughly, then, it is using the fast, aggressive market efficiency to your advantage … for our purposes we can accept that it is highly but not perfectly efficient. You can assume the market is “nearly always right” and is trading higher or lower for a reason. This creates a truism for dynamic, outright futures traders—if you are in a winning position, there is likely a good reason for it. If you are in a losing position, there is also a good reason for it.
And so—act accordingly: size up! Size down! The greater the volatility and the stronger the momentum in the market, the faster participants are forced to make decisions in a compressed time period. This is when price information is at its most pure and easiest to observe … each of the traders in this book has empirically observed the same behaviour and taken advantage of it. The Warrior summarises adverse selection when trading news or periods of high volatility in the markets— ‘I don’t want to be the first guy to hit the news, but you always want to be the second.’ Let the market tell you what it wants to do.”
Regardless of your performance, learning from this period will improve future performance. Everything from the lack of reaction in fixed income to the logic of contrarian headline trades will become an edge one day. You’ll be faster, sharper, and more decisive; experience compounds only if you capture it. If you reflect, adapt, and change your behaviour based on what this taught you, then today’s P&L—win or loss—will be dwarfed by future outperformance. Wasting this could be the opportunity cost of one day saving your career, or perhaps your first six or seven-figure day.
Before we continue, a sober reminder: people died in these events. The consequences are still unfolding. Please remember what we wrote in Traders of Our Time.
That brings us to the question of morality, of seeming opportunism. But in doing so, we risk entering a hall of mirrors. You will read about the profitable trading of events that have had a great impact across the world, with terrible consequences for many, such as assassination, war and the pandemic. And this contrast of fortunes is not lost on us, as it is not lost on the traders navigating these events within the markets. Many have families; many have a great deal more to lose in their lives than just money, trading accounts or financial glory. If it can happen to them, it can happen to me. We do not cheer on the end of other people’s worlds. And yet, some events that you read about have impacted them in the ‘real world’ more directly than you would think. But they traded it all the same.
A Young Trader in Cyprus
Interview conducted Tuesday, 24 June 2025.
It’s around Friday, June 13th, at 2:30 a.m. in Cyprus. A drip of WSJ, and Tehran explosion headlines culminates in confirmation of an Israeli air strike in Iran. Our young trader hears the news. Not in the AXIA office, he runs to his home setup and unfortunately boots out his father-in-law, sleeping beside the desk, in a mad dash to hit the markets.
“I jumped in and remembered from last time: I’ve got to get long Oil [ICE’s Brent Crude Futures], Gold, and the S&P. I was onside quite a lot. But then, Oil crashed two points [200 ticks]. None of my newswires were up, and I was freaking out, unsure if something had been denied. I got out of some [clips], then got back in on the second leg. But it was strange. Gold and S&P weren’t going. You couldn’t get anywhere. I made money on Oil; I was down on everything else.”
What is your view on your broader trading at this time?
The main thing was not to mess it up like I did during the tariff theme. I was going to swing for the hills. I’d been through similar situations before—Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel—so I thought: I’m going for it. Not via some proxy market, just directly hitting Brent. That’s where I made my money, apart from Monday [23 June 2025].
The main opportunity was around 22–23 June, aside from a few comments to build some P&L.
What was your thinking going into the weekend of 21-22 June?
I had a feeling the U.S. strike would happen over the weekend. I thought Trump would strike, then come out and talk it down quickly to push for peace. He’s made it clear he doesn’t want Oil to spike. Oil could trade lower if he strikes and then talks it down by Sunday night. The weekend markets showed Oil gapping up massively—seven or eight points.
I knew I’d be up all night, so I took a nap during the day to be ready.
What were you planning for the Sunday, 22 June futures open?
I’d been learning from another trader, working on relative value and calculations. For this theme, the key was the crack spread. Gas Oil [ICE’s Low Sulphur Gasoil Futures] was flying against Brent.
[Editor Note: The crack spread is the price difference between crude oil and refined petroleum products like Gas Oil.]
Then [The Warrior] and I talked. We weren’t sure Oil would keep going if it was already up 7–8 points. Our plan allowed for the Sunday open to be a fade, like the week before. Nothing had escalated after the U.S. strike. [‘U.S. Attacks Nuclear Sites In Iran…’ U.S. B-2 bombers hit Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.]
I spent some time calculating where the spread should be. Just before the open, Gas Oil had surged, meaning Brent should be up $7.5–8 too. I thought: this is wrong!
WTI [NYMEX’s Crude Oil] was also higher than Brent, which was odd given this was a Middle East situation. [WTI tracks closer to the U.S., Brent to the Middle East.] So on the open, I sold small size in CL and Gas Oil. I went onside in CL, but Gas Oil didn’t move. I remember thinking: this is a derivative of Oil; it’s a spread. Oil is up 2 points, and Gas is pricing in $8! It’s panic, so I held the short. Soon after, it turned and traded lower.
What happened next?
That was Sunday night into Monday morning [22–23 June]. Once you see that kind of reversal, you know it won’t escalate. The open dropped sharply. A lot was already priced in.
Later Monday evening, Qatar closed its airspace. There had been reports throughout the day about an incoming strike. It felt heavily signalled, which I always consider with this theme. Look at one of the final Iranian strikes on Israel. Oil was choppy—not a straight move—but it sold off once the strike ended.
So when we heard Iran was about to fire missiles, I thought: buy some Oil to hold, then once the strike finishes, sell Oil, buy S&P, and sell Gold. A risk-on move.
Was anyone else feeding into your conviction?
[The Warrior] messaged me. We had discussed that one of these events would be a big fade, like the market saying, “It’s over.” He said, “I’m just going to sell it when the strike happens.” That gave me conviction.
I bought a small amount of Oil, but it wasn’t moving. It just sat. I thought: something’s off; so I got out. Around the same time, explosions were reported over Qatar. Six missiles were fired. Oil dropped quickly. S&P was still falling.
That’s when I made the move. I’d missed the Oil leg—it happened faster than expected. There was no move-up first. I bought S&P near the lows, thinking it would go. It was time to hold.
How did you approach size and risk in the moment?
The key was not getting out too early. This time, I held to the high. I’ve reached the point where I’m tired of not pushing for bigger days. I told myself, “We’re going down with the ship if this fails.” I held. That’s where I made all the money—on the de-escalation.
What’s the bigger takeaway for your process?
Be there every minute of every day during the theme. Go for it. You’ll take some hits along the way, including bigger losses, but you must keep hitting size. I didn’t walk away feeling like I did after the Trump tariffs, like I’d messed everything up. I learned the lesson. This has been the best theme, days, and month for me—a milestone. That’s it.
The Godfather Returns
Interview conducted Wednesday, 25 June 2025. London.
How did you approach and think about the Sunday, 22nd June open?
I felt that taking a trade immediately in WTI [NYMEX Crude Oil] carried a 100 to 200 tick risk. I wasn’t willing to do that, so I decided to wait and trade the aftermath.
WTI gapped up as expected, around 400 ticks. S&P dropped 50 to 70 handles. Then, almost instantly, the markets reversed. WTI retraced, and S&P bounced. That’s when my attention turned to Gold [COMEX’s GC]. It had gapped up too, not as much, but was still near its highs, even though Oil had already come off by 100 ticks and S&P had bounced 20 to 30 handles.
[Editor Note: Gold is treated as a safe-haven product, so it is bought in Risk-Off moves and sold in Risk-On. In this specific theme, GC is positively correlated to WTI and negatively correlated with equities.]
I started scaling into GC based on what I saw in the other markets. I thought, why is Gold still up? It hadn’t reacted yet. I held around 50 GC and scaled out as it started to offer. I knew my risk, and liquidity came into the market within five minutes. The risk wasn’t 100 ticks anymore.
I think I ended up nicking just under a point on 40 lots. Then things settled. I stayed until 1 a.m. to see if anything would come out of Iran. Eventually, I got some sleep, knowing I’d be back in the office early Monday.
And what did you and the team discuss on Monday, 23rd?
We were discussing what might come next. I also had a discussion with [The Student] over the weekend. Don’t forget, on Saturday, we thought the strike decision would come in two weeks, as [White House Press Secretary Karoline] Leavitt had said. But we still mapped out a potential scenario: the U.S. striking [Iranian Uranium Enrichment Facility] Fordow would be a risk-on event. [Equity Up, Gold and Crude Oils down.]
What was the thinking behind that?
We weren’t certain, but we kept it in our minds. It was [The Student’s] idea originally, but we both explored it. The thinking was: if the U.S. takes out Fordow, it allows the Iranian regime to stay in power. They didn’t give it up through negotiations, so hardliners remain on their side. Once they saw Israel attack them, they were fighting a war they probably couldn’t have won, especially with the U.S. getting involved. It keeps the regime intact.
Nobody knows the impact of Fordow: whether it sets Iran back five years or five months, only they do. It’s a calculated sacrifice for regime survival. I’ve considered how this fits with [Iran’s Supreme Leader] Khamenei’s historical playbook: survival, not martyrdom. Survival of the regime.
Were you guys working off any external signals?
We didn’t know it then, but later, we read about how some funds had found out that the U.S. had fully evacuated its air base [Al-Udeid] in Qatar days before. All equipment and personnel were gone. That’s why when the announcement came out that Iran was about to attack, Oil was bid and bid but then sold so aggressively and so quickly. Then it got slammed when people realised it might all be theatre.
So, in this period of Iran retaliating by striking the U.S. military base [Al-Udeid] in Qatar, what was your move?
Oil started to bid. Some of the traders I know got long quite aggressively, but I didn’t. At one point, I thought—have I missed out? Because you could have gotten long and then cut-and-reversed. But then we all saw Oil starting to fall, before any new information was out, other than Iran was about to attack the Qatar air base in a matter of minutes. I knew something didn’t feel right when I saw that price action.
Although Oil had gone 100 ticks, I was looking at the S&P, which was trading Risk-Off—it was still offering! While Oil was back to ‘risk-on’ and had done 100-150 ticks. So I started clipping into S&P and built a triple-digit position, I hit GC and I hit Gas Oil; the first time I ever traded it. I sold it because it had not yet moved.
The following headline: Iran had fired six missiles. That felt very meek! Very Tit-for-tat. We were mapping out de-escalation, front-running it. That was the reality. This was the Trump-Iran 1.0 story from 2020. [Watch an explanation and recorded trade of The Warrior navigating the 1.0 story, which is further examined and integrated into Traders of Our Time.]
[Editor Note: That signifies a controlled geopolitical landing zone, providing a face-saving exit for the Iranian regime by firing at some U.S. military bases with no substantial impact, thus avoiding escalation. Everyone can then stand down. Managed de-escalation through the theatre of retaliation or apparent ‘escalation’. This is the ‘best’ outcome.]
But in the heat of the moment, when you did hear retaliation, part of you doesn't need to see the other side, which could be: What if they really go for it? What if we get a real war escalation? To show the world? That is always in the back of your mind.
It’s not easy to say: ‘Yeah! This will all de-escalate, this is the peak of the fear.’ Sometimes you need confirmation. So you look through your Tweetdeck, where you probably get the most accurate up-to-date confirmation of the attack and interceptions. And that’s where I got mine: this is Iran-Trump 1.0 again. Then I also sold into WTI, even if it had moved 250 ticks lower. This time I was looking for complete unwind; a capitulation of the entire bid [since we first began two weeks ago]. I remember messaging [The Student] that I was looking to trade to monthly lows.
But then came the “zero casualties” headline?
Exactly. I added to my shorts. So did everyone else, and I clipped into CL and Brent, and I think I had some 120 lots on in CL, at least—and it was the absolute low of that move!
It then bid 120 ticks, so I had to scale out and out; pay up and up. I couldn’t believe it had moved that much. I think it took a solid 50-60 loser. At the time, it made you think if there was some other news out. Have they struck another base? Have they gone for the UAE or Iraq?
So you are constantly looking and asking: Have I missed something? Right, I haven’t. Sell it again! It doesn’t matter that I lost 60-70k on a big pullback; sell it again! If everything unwinds like we think it should go. So I did sell it.
Then Trump posted.
Yes, what stood out to me was when he said Thanks for the advanced warning. That confirmed it was theatre. Gold was still bid, though; it was lagging. I remember messaging [a trader in AXIA’s Cyprus office] about how wrong GC looked, so I held the short; it needs to catch up.
We stayed in the office until we heard from Trump until about 9 pm.
What about the ceasefire news?
It’s funny because I don’t think any of us actually thought about the next step: a full ceasefire between Israel and Iran. We were all fixated on the U.S. side. We knew it was the beginning of the end—but I didn’t think it would be two hours later!
I had come home and felt relieved. I wasn’t going to turn on my system, but I had a short 15 lots in GC, with a stop in, that I wanted to adjust before I headed to bed. At 10:50 p.m., I turned my screens on for the 11 p.m. open. Nothing suspicious. CL was slightly higher, but I kept the GC as that had a better value as a trade. So I left an OCO order and walked away to get some much-needed sleep. At 11:02 p.m.
At 11:04, my phone blew up, so I ran back to the screens and saw: full ceasefire… Iran and Israel… starting in six hours. I looked at my GC and was even more onside, but I wasn’t positioned for that move.
Stupidly, I started selling Oil and buying S&P. By then, I realised Oil had gone 200 ticks, by the time I ran from my bedroom to the office! It pulls back, thin market—20, 30, 40—in my face on 100 lots! What have I done? What have I done?
But I looked at Trump’s post and thought this had to be big. We expected Iran-Israel to continue, and there is always a risk of something happening to supply. But a full-on ceasefire? Big! I sat through the pain of the trade. The S&P had gone about 20 handles, and I was offside, but I didn’t mind as much as Oil. My Oil entry was terrible because I missed 200 ticks.
But I managed the positions and kept them on. But then CNN…
You saw CNN deny it?
Yes, they were denying that a ceasefire existed immediately. But this was CNN, so far, everything they’ve ever put out is against Trump. Any positivity. So I thought this had to be BS. It has to be! I looked up at my TV and saw [Vice-President] J.D. Vance on TV confirming that the President had brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
But everything on Twitter was denying it, too. So, who do I go with? But I decided that Trump wouldn’t tweet something like this, nor would Vance proclaim this if it’s baseless. That sealed it for me. I held my position.
I kept thinking: what will everyone else do when they see this news? There’s no precedent for a brokered ceasefire. It was a genuine shock. The whole day had been about Iran and the U.S.—no one was thinking about Israel. I worked the trades, but it was messy. I got flat around 1:30 a.m.
Could I have done better? Yes. I missed the first 200 ticks in CL. Regarding expectations, I had to remind myself that you won’t get a six-figure P&L on a ceasefire headline. It is what it is.
But when I went to bed, all I could think was, what if there’s a violation? I’d better be in the office by 7 a.m. So, for Tuesday, I slept at 2 a.m. and woke at 5:30 a.m.
And that was yesterday. Done.
How do you view the two weeks as a whole?
Honestly, it was brutal. That Friday [13 June], when Israel first struck, was the shock. Monday night’s [23 June] full reversal was the second opportunity. Everything in between was tough—noise, false starts, misinformation. When Trump gets to a point where everything he says is more show and not substance, the markets get very messy. And you can’t find conviction. Without that, you can’t put on the size. But then you do put on size out of frustration because of missing the previous move, then it goes bad. It was challenging to execute size over the last two weeks. It chipped away at your stamina. But this final play is what we were waiting for.
In Case You Forgot About Us
But here comes a plot twist. While the whole market focused on these events, Monday, 23 June Fedspeak was actually the trade of the day. That’s what built a serious P&L floor-wide. The Iran–Israel–U.S. headlines just added to it.
Can you walk me through all of this?
We had [Fed’s Michelle] Bowman come out on Monday and say almost exactly what [Fed’s Christopher] Waller had said earlier.
[Editor’s Note. Waller’s key message (Reuters): ‘inflation risk from tariffs was small, and the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting in July,’ Bowman’s key message (CNBC): If inflation stays low, supports rate cut in July; tariffs only minimal impact on inflation.]
Waller is known as a mega dove, while Bowman is viewed as hawkish. So when she reiterated that cuts could come in July, that was significant. For a hawkish member to say that—it was big.
How did you trade it?
I was aggressive on Bowman’s dovish comment on Monday [23 June] because I was aggressive with Waller’s comments on Friday. However, while my product selection was good, it was clearly not that good. I was onside, and then it reversed. I took a scratch on Waller. I traded the Five-Year, Euro, Gold, and S&P on Friday-Waller.
So, I had that in mind with Bowman and went super aggressive in SR3 [CME’s 3-Month U.S. short-term interest rate futures]. I lifted 500 SR3, 150 Euro [6E: CME’s EURUSD futures] and around 300 ZF [CBOT’s U.S. Five-Year Note futures].
The reaction was not what it ‘should’ have been; there was a lot of noise and whippy action, but I tried to block it out. I told myself this was a hawkish member flipping dovish—too dovish. Personally, Trump is dying for the Fed to cut rates; he’s going to bring the most dovish Fed member he can find. Over the next 12 months, you will see short-term yields in the U.S come off significantly. So, I used all these points to remind myself to try and hold that short-end position longer.
But I’ll add this: the market isn’t accelerating just yet because, even though Bowman said something dovish, the Fed is clearly divided. Some members align with Trump’s push for cuts, but others argue tariffs will cause inflation. Even with Bowman’s statement, traders are doubtful. The market is sceptical. She’s just trying to keep Trump happy.
After all that Fed action, a few hours later, the Qatar headlines hit—and we were back to thinking about Iran and the U.S.
Read Much More About These Special Traders!
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125 Years of Mastery.
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Acknowledgements, Permissions & Disclaimer
Grateful acknowledgement to AXIA for granting access to many of their traders.
Image Credits
Members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve participate in the FOMC meeting, March 18–19, 2025, at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Building, Washington, D.C.
Source: Federal Reserve / Public domain
President Donald Trump meets with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the White House Situation Room, June 21, 2025. Portions of this photo have been blurred for security.
Source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok / United States Government Work / Public domain
Disclaimer: Do Not Do Stupid Financial Decisions. This Is Not A Game.