A Trading Firm’s Q2 2025 Review: Vertical Learning (Part III)
Mind-melding With Four Traders
Across the AXIA trading desks.
April-June 2025.
London, England, and Limassol, Cyprus.
This is Part III. For rest, please see:
Denial was the success story in Q2. It involved quick, aggressive trading on a few necessary days, then holstering that aggression. Rewards went to those who could do the latter.
As discussed in Part I, the VIX showed its fastest decline over three weeks after April 2, 2025—‘Liberation Day’. The same is observed in the U.S.-Iran-Israel flashpoint in June. Practitioners would note the market’s rapid switch from action to inaction, and readers will see this in the reflections of four traders in our quarterly review.
Let’s introduce:
The Hero (from Traders of Our Time) shared his thoughts in the Q1 Review. Consider this trader a reflection of a less explicit news-comment-headline trader to a market profile-based trader. How has he framed this quarter that ostensibly didn’t fit his perfect ‘opportunity set’?
‘F.K.’ and ‘J.N.’ represent a growing cadre of young performers ‘bulking out the middle’ as discussed in Part II. Both have been building their account, skills, and possess a tangible, professional career—act and think like it—and pushed major P&L milestones. Both have clocked six-figure days and months. J.N. is in the running for a seven-figure year.
All traders in Part III are in their mid-to-late 20s and early 30s. In Asymmetrist, we’ve looked at traders across experience, achievement, and age. But these traders represent those who’ve been grinding the axe for so long. They’re finally starting to use it, and are the core of this up-and-coming centre that will lead their generation, just as sports teams replace talent from one generation to the next.
F.K. has made his news-headline trading bones this quarter—a previously unexplored skill he’s quickly learned, adapted, and monetised during this new opportunity cycle. He’s a strong example of a trader who had success with other ‘methods’, yet expanded his range with a new opportunity set. He is well placed to create a new trading floor in Croatia, within the AXIA ecosystem. Asymmetrist will investigate this!
J.N. has a spread-trading background in fixed income futures. He then moved to the AXIA desks in London to develop and monetise the skills needed as an outright trader, and subsequently as a news-headline driven trader. He excels at spotting relative value across products and asset classes to identify better opportunities, or trades in lagging markets with a news catalyst. This can be the case with spread traders, like The Godfather, who repurpose these adjacent skills for outright trading. J.N. now faces a new challenge as a new father and moving away from the London floor.
‘R.G’, based in Cyprus, is in a unique career phase. After years of survival and account drawdown he’s made his bones this year, especially in Q2, displaying a curious P&L curve pattern that AXIA’s Alex Haywood observed. That P&L volatility—up and down days increase markedly—often precludes a breakout into positive territory, which is often violent and sudden. This is after a longer period of an extended account downtrend, often in negative territory, that is slow and meandering. The P&L volatility increases because the trader has been receiving and utilising more size to match what they’ve learnt and developed to the market’s opportunity cycle. This is seen in their conviction, staying power, and pushing certain milestones then consolidating those milestones. Remember: the ability to consolidate is a marker of the long emergence to mastery.
R.G. could once achieve five-figure days but would give them back. As his ability to consolidate gains emerged, he could build on these outsized days and hit larger up-days—solid multi-five figure days, while giving back little. Readers will note how this is reflected in his view of Q1 and Q2.
R.G., an intense reader of Asymmetrist, sent a dissenting argument—a ‘letter to the editor’—against some observations in Parts I and II. Those points are valid and important for new traders. However, they require nuance and are suitable for Part IV—the next and final part of the quarterly review.
We’ll come full circle on some matters below, with a top-down view from AXIA’s Mario Kyriacou, whom we met in Part II and on the U.S. November elections night.
Note: These interviews were conducted in mid-July to early August 2025 and have been grouped by theme rather than by explicit question. Consider this a compilation of thematic insights—not a traditional Q&A. Responses have been lightly edited for readability, with every effort made to preserve original voice and language.
The Round Table
On market behaviour evolution in Q2
F.K: “Established correlations can break down, sometimes violently. That is dangerous for spread traders, who risk mistaking a divergence for a signal instead of a trap. [Editor Note: This point stands for any trader relying on correlations or market relationships to search for ‘value’—where markets are relatively out of line with each other, forming the basis for a trade.]
In Q2, the biggest challenge for me was the shifting FX dynamics. Currencies initially weakened on tariff threats, like the Euro. But as the narrative evolved, the Euro became the strongest currency, with capital rotating out of the dollar faster than I anticipated.
It took time to recognise the regime shift in real time, but that understanding comes from experience. Going forward, I want to stay agile and avoid getting anchored to old patterns or expectations.”
J.N: “Some correlations during the post-‘Liberation Day’ volatility evaporated after the 90-day [April 9 tariff] pause. The Q1 ‘sell America’ [flows] briefly allowed a trade on a dump of American assets, causing US yields to move inversely to the dollar. As volatility eroded, it became important to ditch any correlations for intraday setups and look at each market independently.”
On recognising the phases of a theme’s life cycle and adaptive execution
F.K: “It comes down to understanding our position in the news cycle. Early on, fresh tariff developments were genuinely market-moving. Even recycled headlines could still provoke a meaningful move. I remember colleagues making money on comments that had already circulated, simply because not everyone had caught them the first time.
As the cycle matures, market sensitivity fades. Headlines that seemed catastrophic months earlier lose their impact. A good example is the recent 35% Canadian tariffs. ES [S&P futures] reacted, but within a day, it was back at the highs. Context and news fatigue matter. A headline’s impact depends on timing and the market’s attention span.”
J.N: “It’s tracking the diminishing returns across sub-themes. One trader who had a massive day on the 90-day [April 9 tariff] pause said it was partly because he lost interest in further China tariff headlines. He recognised that side of the trade had become less lucrative, leaving him better positioned to react to what may have been one of the best setups. That edge comes from reassessing where the real bang for buck is across themes and news catalysts. [Note: The trader mentioned by JN was less interested in tit-for-tat escalation on increasing the tariff number, and a de-escalation now carried the best chances for a dramatic market move.]
R.G: “In [May-June], there are only a few opportunities a month now, unlike before in Q1. Some traders smashed it, but many were down. Opportunities came late at night. Some of the Sunday night opens. Other nuanced trades that were a very complex opportunity set, which far less people traded.”
When volatility was high in early Q2, you could trade the in-between space—between market moving headlines or events. Now, you stay away from that space. I cut everything out and focused on my big opportunities towards the end of Q2. There are more days in the last month and a half where I haven’t traded than any point in my career. I just don’t trade. Every time I dip my finger in, I get burnt. I’m better off doing nothing.”
On process, mindset, and energy
The Hero: “I’ve been working with the concept of TEAM—Treat Emotions As Messages. As market conditions shifted in Q2, I began to experience certain emotions to varying degrees. That was vital information for changes in my trading approach. Before 2025, I wasn’t implementing the information I was receiving from emotions. Q2 challenged me to listen to them. Old behaviours would’ve had me ignore them.
This shift led me to take a broader approach to markets—scanning for opportunities at higher timeframes and resisting shorter-term information. Long-term thinking is the only way to navigate short-term chaos. I’ve compounded best when I’ve valued—and acted on—the information my emotions were sending me, not when I’ve tried to suppress them.”
F.K: “Treating trading like an endurance sport—physically and mentally—helped me stay resilient. You’ve got to support yourself and find that extra one percent. For me, that meant eating high-quality food, making exercise non-negotiable, and protecting my sleep. Even during [comment or headline likely] periods, I’d fit in walks or short workouts. Sleep was probably the biggest factor—many traders couldn’t switch off, even when exhausted. I made it a priority. Weekends became crucial for recovery and training.
We spend many hours at our screens, pushing us toward burnout. When the market’s active, that presence makes sense. But during dead stretches—sometimes weeks—it’s tempting to step away. Ironically, that’s when the market strikes. Last quarter, I stepped away twice during quiet periods, missing major opportunities. It felt uncanny. You show up every day, then miss the move by an inch because your endurance gave out. It’s a brutal reminder of how relentless this job is—and how vital it is to manage your mental energy as carefully as your trading capital.
I had to push myself to take on more size in Q2. Some traders have that aggression naturally. I used to—but lost it and had to rebuild it. There’s always a mental barrier when sizing up. Breaking through it is key. I use mental routines or “hacks” to push myself—but they need constant updating. If I haven’t done the prep and the opportunity appears, I might miss it. Building the discipline to always be ready—and size up when it counts—is something I’m still working on. But it’s crucial for growth in this game.”
J.N: “I’ve been trading more size and focusing on fewer markets. I perform better executing across two markets rather than five or six, even if the overall exposure stays the same.
I’ve stopped extensive prep and focused on potential news which could come out at any time. That shift has worked, conserving energy and keeping mental capital for bigger opportunities. But, as [Part I: the Q2 review] pointed out, we can only get away with this because the market is allowing it. I’m wary of losing my creative processes and not ‘edge farming,’ which could lead to low confidence and performance.
You can’t be there for every opportunity. Manage your time and be present when it makes sense. European mornings haven’t been worth my time. If I want to be at screens until 8 pm [GMT+0], coming in for 7 am and exhausting myself is probably a net negative.
You must accept the consequences of your choices. If you decide to work a 14-hour day that yields nothing, you still have to accept it. As long as your decision-making was sound, trust the process. Otherwise, I could drag grudges for weeks and ruin myself.”
On seizing (and sometimes missing) the most asymmetric opportunities
F.K: “It was the major geopolitical shift this quarter. I caught early clues and was probably the first on my floor to trade it. The real asymmetry was in the risk and reward. The market wasn’t fully pricing in what I saw, so the payoff was huge compared to the perceived risk. Ironically, I didn’t capitalise on it as much as I could have. I struggled to believe I was right and the market was wrong. That hesitation to trust my read and size up accordingly meant I left a lot on the table. It’s a lesson in conviction. Sometimes the biggest opportunities feel uncomfortable.”
J.N: “I performed better on the Monday morning after China and the US announced a truce — around May 12th. I saw significant value and vulnerable positioning in Gold, still trading near all-time highs, and felt the residual risk premium was out of sync with equities.”
Kyriacou: “There were huge opportunities, but it wasn’t easy. You needed experience in volatility to appreciate and capitalise on what was there. The traders had seen these markets before. Not necessarily the same thing—this was more volatile than we’ve seen for a long time—but if you’d been through high-vol periods in the past, you had the confidence to attack. And it showed. Some had their best-ever days. Some doubled or tripled their previous best years—and that’s just in the first half.”
On handling failure: missed trades and misjudged risk
F.K: “As The Warrior says [in Traders of Our Time], it’s the trader’s curse—you’re never fully satisfied. Looking back, I often wonder, why didn’t I push for more size on that trade? Even after a record quarter, trading my biggest size ever and navigating new events, I still feel I left something on the table.
As a newcomer to this trading style, I handled things well. But why not aim for 20% more? The risk to my account was manageable. Seeing peers at the same level pushing harder gives perspective. Comparison can be a thief of joy, but it sharpens your edge if you want to improve. Satisfaction is always out of reach. And maybe that’s the point. It keeps you pushing for the next level.”
J.N: “The 90-day [April 7 tariff] pause was the big one. But I didn’t recognise it ahead of time and performed poorly. I was at home with the newborn. I traded the wrong way first, and trading solo meant I missed good conversations that could have helped.
A brief prep on that scenario might have changed everything. One of my weak points is reacting to things that catch me off guard. The best way to combat that is to prep for as many scenarios as possible. Reflect on the market, reflect on yourself, and stay aware of what’s shifting—both internally and in the trading game.”
Kyriacou: “It cuts both ways. The less experienced traders didn’t capitalise. Some got chopped up. Even seasoned traders, if you weren’t dialed in, could get caught out. It rewarded skill, timing, and professionalism. These environments hit remote single traders harder. Take the [April 9, 90-Day Pause on China Tariffs] event. The way it dropped, then rallied, was all over the place. The traders on the floor had more eyes on the screen. They could shout out, communicate quickly—‘Why is this going the other way?’ That collectiveness matters. You need it to make sense of fast, messy events.
Some remote traders missed it in time. One trader had size on, read only the first part of the headline, and by the time he realised what it actually said, it was too late. He dropped multi-six figures. Since then, he’s recovered and done well—but it’s a good example of how small the margins are in these environments.
Managing disappointment is a major challenge. You’ve got traders who’ve done well, others who’ve missed it—or worse, lost money. For some, it can be a turning point. It can knock confidence, derail momentum, or lead them to question their place.
It’s my job and the coaches’ job to be the ones they come to. To take the brunt, listen to them, let them offload. That’s what makes us different. Most firms focus on the P&L—‘Great, we had a good day, who cares about the rest?’ But we genuinely care about all our traders, not just the ones doing well. We want to help those who didn’t make it through this period so they’re ready for next time. That’s the point.”
R.G: “Looking back, that big loss I took on the 90-day [April 7 tariff pause] was a turning point. Before that, I felt like I was making steady progress. I was comfortable hitting size. I’d taken some big losses—[five figure down days or less]—but I was okay with it. I was making money. The opportunities were good. I was in the market all day, every day, constantly trading. Occasionally a big trade would come, and I’d smash it. I got comfortable being down during the day and making it back. That was new for me. But hindsight shows a lot of leakage. I was a bit loose with my trading.
Then the 90-day pause hit—and I got obliterated. After that, things changed. I had a few [multi-five-figure days] in May. That gave me confidence. But since then, everything’s come from good trading. I’m not as active as before. That loss dented my confidence. It’s not what it was.
I feel like I’ve underperformed on most of the biggest opportunities, even the good ones. People see it as me breaking through, but I don’t feel that way. [There was only one Oil trade] where I felt I nailed it. Everything else—I came away frustrated. I know I’m improving, but that gap between what I did and what I could’ve done eats at me.”
On reflection—of the market, and of the self
The Hero: [Note: Compiled from the trader’s responses to Asymmetrist’s questions and his personal Q2 reflections.] “Q2 reinforced my belief that market behaviour is as unsustainable as any trading approach—if not more. Often, feeling your approach has exhausted its edge is a stronger signal that market conditions are about to shift than you want to admit. I felt burnt out at the end of Q1 from the activity I was deploying. That alone signalled the current market regime was likely closer to the end of its lifespan than the start.
Market conditions will always be the main driver as to how opportunity is defined. However, my personal makeup of openness and curiosity as to what is happening at any given time also plays a substantial role in defining opportunity.
In Q1, we had an environment that promoted an intuitive approach to openness and curiosity. With new information consistently entering the market, it was easy to be curious about current events and open to various potential futures. In such an environment, it’s easier to remain open and curious, as working through uncertainty often requires engagement with the market at higher levels than normal.
In Q2, there was a shift away from the highly sensitive, day-to-day market approach, as initial shocks were softened by volatility-killing events like tariff pauses and short-lived geopolitical uncertainty. The required openness and curiosity during this period were different—because perspective needed to broaden out from day-to-day business to a more future-focused approach. I.e. now that we know certain variables and their effects, what does the future look like beyond today?
Since April, applying the constant openness and curiosity to markets hasn’t been as effective as in Q1. This is largely because the market dynamics have changed, requiring different levels of openness and curiosity. An environment so sensitive to daily developments isn’t sustainable. So proceeding with the same approach to assessing markets and their offerings is a poor tactic.
Think back to the end of March, and how burnt out that current approach of trading had become. In hindsight, it was greatly overlooked to just persist with what worked, without considering a different degree of self-application.”
F.K: “This quarter, I was exposed to a new style of fundamentally driven event trading. It was a revelation. I adapted quickly, but I was shocked by how many years had passed without me realising such an opportunity even existed. It felt like a whole new world had opened up.
It made me realise how dangerous a closed mindset can be in an environment that doesn’t invite creative or non-traditional approaches. Looking back, I see how easily that culture narrows your perspective unnoticed. For me, this was a breakthrough. I saw how long I had been living in a box, and it shifted my approach.
Q2 broke one of my core trading beliefs: that sticking to a single style or framework was the best way to stay consistent. Real growth comes from stepping outside your comfort zone and questioning your assumptions. Staying open and adaptable is essential for long-term success.
After years living under a rock, I’m motivated to explore and push beyond old boundaries in trading and beyond. I’ve researched new markets, experimented with tools, and explored non-trading areas like mindset, nutrition, and personal routines. Trading fosters curiosity, which I love. That curiosity has spilled over into my life—I’ve taken up new hobbies and interests.
Beyond trading, my biggest growth was personal. I learned to appreciate what I have, regardless of my P&L. I value both the past and the future. I see this as a game, not just of markets, but of life. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t. Everyone is on their path. Q2 taught me to appreciate mine, wherever it leads.”
R.G: “Despite Q1 having more opportunity, I performed better in Q2 than in Q1. I didn’t have the reps early on. When Trump came in and the markets started flying, it took me time to adjust. My news trading now versus the start of the year took a massive leap. At the start I was afraid to jump in … other times I went too far the other way—whacking everything with size, taking big hits. Now I’ve found the middle.
When I was increasing size and learning to trade macro-news, there were far fewer traps like Q1 with the [German debt brake] and the [U.S–Iran–Israel flashpoint]. That [multi-five figure] day, I apparently relatively outperformed the office, alongside another trader sat close to me. We made our money on smaller opportunity sets. We’re better at managing ‘messy path’ trades because of [The Collector, from Traders of Our Time]. Continuation trades—we can hold them better.
Before, I was making money but giving a lot back. Now I’m making—but giving back very little. [One example, as R.G explained,] was an Oil trade where I made [multi-five figures]—my best day. Not just in P&L, but in execution. I maxed my size, added well, exited cleanly. Even if the move had been smaller and I made less, I’d still be proud of how I traded it.”
On carrying forward Q2 wisdom
F.K: “Right now [mid to late July], we’ve entered the classic summer market. ES keeps creeping up, shrugging off old news and offering little genuinely new. It’s the same pattern from previous years—a slow grind higher that lulls traders into complacency and hides subtle traps. In these phases, keeping your cool and protecting capital is crucial. This is a very different environment from the previous two quarters.
It feels like one of those moments to sit tight and do nothing until a new narrative emerges and the market offers real opportunities again.
I’d emphasise knowing when to sit tight and when to go aggressive. Trading is like hunting. Stay calm, patient, and wait for the right moment, especially when opportunities are rare. That timing comes with experience, but if you’re newer, watch seasoned traders. If they’re in capital-protection mode, you should be too. Sometimes the best trade is to do nothing and preserve your capital for when it matters. Even experienced traders forget this.”
Kyriacou: “If there’s one consistent P&L leak, it’s this: when people make money early in the day, they’re likely to give it back later. A trade comes out at 7 or 8 AM, and the team does well. But by the end, their P&L is worse than at 9 AM. They start loosening up, getting more aggressive, chasing another hit. Expectations get distorted. That’s where the bleed happens. Generally, when the morning is quiet and the afternoon is busy, they keep it. But when the morning is good, they get greedy—and that’s where they slip.”
Kyriacou:“[Regarding new traders] you can explain to them all day long, but until they live through it, it’s not the same. Now they’ve experienced this doesn’t last forever. The Trump Tariffs and geopolitical events gave us a busy stretch, but now it’s quiet again—summer markets. The cycle has shifted. I think people are recognising that.
It’s about how they manage it. A junior made six figures, then almost lost it in a day. But he’s still here, pushing through. That’s part of the job. If you want to sit at the big trader table, you must accept this is part of who you are. It’s character building.
The Hero: “Although I wasn’t attuned enough to react in real time, the Oil spike following the [U.S.–Iran–Israel flashpoint] preceded volatility compression—not the start of a new volatility expansion. Looking back, there were market reactions to fresh information signaling we were closer to unsustainable volatility than I acknowledged.
The key was the Bond price action on June 13th. Bunds gapped up above a multi-week balance and rejected the ‘risk-off’ catalyst of Israel’s initial strikes. On June 15th, Oil and Gold saw immediate selling at the Sunday reopen, despite no weekend de-escalation. If sensitivity around a theme persists, there should be follow-through from the most correlated assets. But here, we saw the opposite of what you’d expect from a genuine risk-off regime.
In hindsight, I was trapped by residual Q1 thinking. I had a first-order view of how markets should react, and I wasn’t open to alternative scenarios. That lack of openness prevented me from capitalising on the short-term volatility, but reviewing that week helped shift my perspective. It showed me that market sensitivity around the conflict wasn’t as elevated as I’d assumed—and that I needed to recalibrate my approach.
More broadly, I’ve come to see how geopolitical instability can linger for long periods before any real market reaction kicks in. When volatility does arrive, it tends to draw in short-term participants. That’s when I want to be most vigilant. I’ve also learned to better accept the reflexivity of central banks and governments—how they can dampen short-term volatility in both markets and global events. Staying open to that reality is what keeps you from being boxed into worst-case thinking.”
»Part IV To Follow.
Acknowledgements, Permissions & Disclaimer
With thanks to AXIA for facilitating access to their trading desks—and to the traders themselves for their time, candour, and support.
The photograph, provided by Axia Futures, is used with their permission, and they retain full ownership and copyright over the image.
Disclaimer: Do Not Do Stupid Financial Decisions. This Is Not A Game.